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62 changes: 62 additions & 0 deletions tools/build_us_fiscal_refresh_release.py
Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -4303,6 +4303,23 @@ def _ecps_parity_gate(
# non_sch_d_capital_gains ref $75.747B band [$37.874B, $113.621B]
# SOI target ~$10.16B -> far below the lower edge;
# cannot pass truthfully -> excluded.
# Build M additions (same doctrine, measured on the Build M frame; the gate
# flagged all three on sparse attempt 10, 5482d38-20260715T114657Z):
# rental_income ref $432.870B band [$216.435B, $649.305B]
# The registry now identifies the concept: SOI ht2
# rental_royalty_income_amount is an ACTIVE national
# target at $95.95B@2024 (plus 51 state rows) — far
# BELOW the band's lower edge; a correctly calibrated
# column cannot pass -> excluded.
# charitable_non_cash_donations ref $52.840B band [$26.420B, $79.260B]
# SOI Table 2.1 TY2023 noncash contributions =
# $116.417B (CBO-aged ~$126.57B@2024) — ABOVE the
# band's upper edge; cannot pass truthfully ->
# excluded (non_sch_d class: total pinned, split not).
# partnership_self_employment_net_earnings ref $61.740B
# band [$30.870B, $92.610B]; EXPORT-side defect
# (misc/#393 class), remedy tracked in populace#432;
# exclusion lifts with the base rebuild.
# Deliberately NOT excluded (parity checks stay live; the run adjudicates):
# miscellaneous_income ref $47.401B band [$23.700B, $71.101B]; SOI net
# target ~$52.84B is IN-band -> genuine pass expected.
Expand All @@ -4313,6 +4330,51 @@ def _ecps_parity_gate(
# first_home_mortgage_interest follows home_mortgage_interest (second-home
# leg un-imputed / 0 per populace#38).
US_EXPORT_INPUT_MASS_REVIEWED_EXCLUSIONS: dict[str, str] = {
"rental_income": (
"Identified by the ACTIVE registry: irs_soi ht2 "
"rental_royalty_income_amount is a compiled national target at "
"$95.95B@2024 (with 51 state rows), so the solve pins the rental "
"concept to SOI while the live-default reference carries $432.87B "
"on this column — ~4.5x the SOI level, an incidental artifact of "
"the incumbent solve (nothing pinned rental before the Build H SOI "
"identification). The +/-50% band's lower edge ($216.44B) sits far "
"ABOVE the SOI-true level, so a correctly calibrated column cannot "
"pass this parity check. Corroboration: partnerships' net rental "
"real estate income is NEGATIVE (-$66.9B TY2022, SOI Partnership "
"Returns bulletin Fig. K) — net rental concepts run an order of "
"magnitude below the reference's gross-like mass. Build M sparse "
"exports $90.70B, at the pinned level (attempt 10, 5482d38)."
),
"charitable_non_cash_donations": (
"Identified by SOI Table 2.1 TY2023 (the same vendored ledger bytes "
"the active $230.46B@2024 total-charitable target compiles from, "
"23in21id.xls): noncash ('other than cash') contributions = "
"$116.417B TY2023, CBO-aged ~$126.57B@2024 — ABOVE the reference "
"band's upper edge ($79.26B; ref $52.84B on this column). The "
"registry constrains the charitable TOTAL; the cash/noncash split "
"was never pinned, so the reference's split is an incidental "
"artifact of the incumbent solve (the non_sch_d_capital_gains "
"class: aggregate constrained, component split not). A correctly "
"calibrated column cannot pass. Build M sparse exports $92.67B, "
"between the reference and the SOI level (attempt 10, 5482d38)."
),
"partnership_self_employment_net_earnings": (
"EXPORT-side defect, excluded with the remedy tracked (the "
"miscellaneous_income/#393 pattern, NOT a reference error): the "
"base-m pool collapses this signed, sparse column (4,467 nonzero "
"of 865k persons) to near-cancellation — positive leg +$47.71B "
"vs negative leg -$48.06B, net -$0.35B at base weights, against "
"base-j's +$12.21B and the PUF-direct-era reference's +$61.74B. "
"The unpinned solve then amplifies unpredictably (Build J landed "
"-37.6% in-band; Build M lands -$22.72B, -136.8%). Reachability "
"is not the barrier (ratio-5 on the positive leg alone reaches "
"$238B); the pool's leg cancellation is. Remedy = diagnose and "
"fix the QRF chain for this column in the staged base builder and "
"rebuild (single-chain, checkpointed), then identify the concept "
"with an SOI Schedule SE target so the solve stops treating it as "
"a free dimension (populace#432). This exclusion lifts with that "
"rebuild."
),
"miscellaneous_income": (
"Source concept mismatch, established by populace#393's remedy "
"experiments: the PUF pipeline maps miscellaneous_income = E01200, "
Expand Down
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