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Full eCPS input coverage: 158 required columns, 8 evidence-backed exclusions#399

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MaxGhenis merged 51 commits into
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buildm-ecps-coverage
Jul 12, 2026
Merged

Full eCPS input coverage: 158 required columns, 8 evidence-backed exclusions#399
MaxGhenis merged 51 commits into
mainfrom
buildm-ecps-coverage

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What

Full eCPS exported-input coverage for populace-us: every input column the retired enhanced-CPS pipeline exported is now either restored with non-default signal (158 required columns) or carries a reviewed exclusion with evidence of source unavailability (8 columns). The release input-coverage gate enforces the contract at build time — a reform keyed on a missing input fails the build instead of silently scoring $0.

The arc

Build J shipped with 65 required / 88 reviewed exclusions. This branch restores 93 input-column families across ~110 commits: SIPP tips, SCF auto loans, overtime/FLSA, education (with an AOTC abolition probe: $12.28B on pe-us 1.764.6), retirement contributions, casualty losses, miscellaneous itemized, childcare, alimony, the Section 199A/QBI family, capital-gain detail, Form 4952, prior-year income, housing/tenure, child support, SPM energy subsidy, SALT refund, typed household weights, demographic/labor descriptors including weeks unemployed, and source-calibrated take-up seeds (SSI, Head Start) — each as its own commit with targeted tests and a manifest promotion.

The 8 remaining exclusions (all evidence-backed)

employer_sponsored_insurance_premiums, financial_assistance, investment_interest_expense, is_unmarried_partner_of_household_head, is_wic_at_nutritional_risk, survivor_benefits, takes_up_dc_ptc, takes_up_early_head_start_if_eligible — each cites archived commit 42ed5d4 in the retired pipeline showing the derivation consumed a source (live fetches, MEPS-IC parameters, or restricted panels) that cannot exist in the hermetic build.

Integration with main

Merged (not rebased) origin/main: the SNAP state surface (#256, #371, #376), the PUMA geography ladder (#394), the loader-test decouple (#392), and --no-latest (#397). Six builder conflict hunks plus the us_runtime export merges were resolved with a both-lineages-survive discipline — main's snap_state_take_up stage, diagnostics write, and telemetry attachment run alongside the campaign's other_health_insurance and ssi_take_up stages; grep-verified family registrations from both sides.

Test evidence

  • 83/83 targeted tests on the collision surfaces (coverage suites, take-up contract, snap/snap-state/ssi/medicaid take-up).
  • Full populace-build suite on the merged tree: exit 0 (one credentialed-repo skip).
  • Ruff clean.

Build M (the re-certification run producing the next certified default) follows this merge, with the dense-arm miscellaneous_income disposition per #393's final determination.

MaxGhenis and others added 30 commits July 10, 2026 09:38
…nect, no handoff)

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
…h 401 starvation, no handoff)

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
… + in-flight next family

Sol's sandbox saw this linked worktree's .git as read-only, so tranches
committed to a shadow repo (.coverage-git, branched at 0c7bbfb):
55d34f6 ledger init, 6873931 overtime verify (104-test mandated set +
70-test family rerun + Ruff), bfeff98 ledger update. This commit lands
the working tree (shadow content + newer uncommitted in-flight work)
onto the canonical branch.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
MaxGhenis and others added 21 commits July 11, 2026 14:25
Integrates the SNAP state surface (#256 #371 #376), the PUMA ladder
(#394), the loader-test decouple (#392), and --no-latest (#397) with
the campaign's 93 restored input families. Six builder conflict hunks
+ the us_runtime export merges resolved keeping BOTH lineages: main's
snap_state_take_up stage/diagnostics/telemetry sequenced alongside the
campaign's other_health_insurance and ssi_take_up stages. Full
populace-build suite passes on the merged tree (exit 0, 1 cred skip).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis MaxGhenis merged commit 79335e4 into main Jul 12, 2026
4 checks passed
MaxGhenis added a commit that referenced this pull request Jul 14, 2026
…rse (#428)

Build M's sparse run failed the eCPS parity gate on household_weight:
the reference (a finished export) carries the calibrated weight column
at 22.6% nonzero share, while the candidate keeps weights as typed
pipeline state and us_nonzero_shares read the deliberately absent
table column as an all-zero layer. The coverage gate already mirrors
the H5 adapter (which materializes the typed vector as
household_weight on write); the parity share computation now applies
the same mirror, so both gates and the export tell one story. A table
column still wins when present. The check entered the parity reference
with #399's 158-column expansion — Build J's 65-entry reference
predates it, so this was another first-full-scale exercise.

Fixes #427.

Co-authored-by: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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