Build J re-certification: eCPS parity −5, coverage +5 required, 24-cell zero-support + run scaffolding#389
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…#368) Setup on origin/main 561c198 (all of #369/#373/#384/#385 + SNAP train). Findings: F1 base pool unchanged (assets/SNAP are release-time source stages, not base-builder changes) -> base sha expected 18833fb6; F2 target registry byte-identical to Build H (v8 facts reusable, 5533/5514 surface = clean Build I comparison); F3 SSI probe ref +$9.66B SCF-only overlay, re-solved rebuild should land lower. Runtime scripts snapshot for durability; live copies in _buildj-runtime (absolute paths). STAGING/LOCAL ONLY. Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
All arm launchers verified against origin/main APIs: release-tool internals (_load_frame, _read_target_frame_checkpoint, compile_us_fiscal_target_registry, load_ledger_consumer_artifact, calibrate) signatures match the Build H direct-solve call exactly; base_selection_mask(frozen_support) is the built-in >0-miss STOP. Dense/sparse add --scf-summary-extract (sha-pinned rscfp2022.dta) + fresh checkpoint roots; NO killing watchdogs (pressure-sample only). STAGING/LOCAL ONLY. Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
…on arms (#368) reform-VALIDATION tail (optional, post-H5, not a gate) skipped to avoid the pre-existing selection-agnostic MD-UNKNOWN crash (populace#367 / policyengine-us#8975, unfixed on pinned pe-us 1.764.6); reform-COVERAGE smoke GATE stays ON (separate flag). Recorded PERIOD=2024 for the SSI probe, the #384 register-consistency preflight, TANF exclusion removal, and per-gate verdict-data file locations. STAGING/LOCAL ONLY. Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
… 18833fb6) (#368) Base DATA identical to Build F (summary byte-identical except self-sha+path; base_household_weight_total 134690323.34024483 exact; builder 0-diff build-f vs main). h5 sha 0b50660a != 18833fb6 = HDF5 serialization non-determinism, benign (all arms read sha dynamically; Build I comparison stays like-for-like; rmloss100 join keys on data cols). F1 corrected. STAGING/LOCAL ONLY. Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
rmloss100 (152baca3) joins onto base-j with n_unmapped=0 n_ambiguous=0 — confirms F1 (base data identical, identity cols preserved). Sparse arm runs first (certification + SSI probe) then dense diagnostic; independent + serialized. STAGING/LOCAL ONLY. Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
…y-benign) (#368) Sparse release running detached (rmloss100 dense-polish, scf_wealth ON, all gates, no bypass): past ACA + into Medicaid eligibility materialization on the reduced 57k, RSS ~15GB, free% 85 — no jetsam risk. Extractor reads calibration_diagnostics/ input_mass_parity/reform_coverage_smoke/input_coverage for the #368 table. Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
…2412 unreported at source) (#368) First release-scale run of #334: RI's December 2024 CMS snapshot is footnoted 0 ('Unable to Provide Data due to System Limitations') in the pinned PI dataset — ledger package + v8 feed faithful; registry compiles 50/51 state medicaid targets (FIPS 44 absent); gate unconditionally hard, runs pre-calibration in both arms. scf_wealth signal gate PASSED before the block (assets flow). STOP per protocol — no synthesis; filed populace#386 with the option space. Registry re-verified d71c59514e3a/5533 (F2 double-confirmed under #334). Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
…ce hole) (#368) Report: #368 (comment) Finding issue: #386 Verdict: NOT CERTIFIABLE this run — blocked at the #334 gate pending the #386 decision; not an artifact-quality failure. Asset stage (#373) confirmed working at release scale en route. Resume is mechanical post-decision. Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
… RI->2024-11) into build-j-recert Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
… relaunch sparse (#368) Registry grows 5533->5534 (injected RI spec 273,400, issue-linked #386, cannot-rot); Build I comparison caveat: like-for-like plus the substituted RI target. Run populace-us-2024-buildj-sparse-rmloss100-a7ad0c8-20260710T053754Z detached. Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
…e layers now (#368) The #337 staleness check caught these on Build J's first full-release pass — coverage growth digesting into the debt ledger, verified per-layer on the actual rmloss100 57,240 candidate frame with the gate's own us_nonzero_shares: block_geoid / tract_geoid / county_fips: candidate 1.0 == reference 1.0 (the #277/#289 geography-ladder spine, carried by the base pool) spm_unit_pre_subsidy_childcare_expenses: candidate 0.0755 vs reference 0.1022 (raw CPS childcare signal now carried; depth still tracked in #32) health_savings_account_ald: candidate 0.00936 vs reference 0.0962 (populated but thin, ~10% of the incumbent share; depth tracked in #32) All five are genuine population (not spurious writes), so removal is the mechanism's prescribed path: parity now checks them as ordinary layers (reference-populated -> candidate-populated = pass). The register shrinks 93 -> 88 entries. Parity register tests green (13 passed). Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
…relaunched (#368) Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
…der live take-up seeding (#368) Third register digesting the week's coverage growth (coordinator-confirmed same root cause, not systemic): #384 made TANF take-up seeding live (13,205/59,900 spm_units True vs the old constant-True), and fl/ia/mo/ne/nj lose their few sparse-selection TANF carriers under the seeded draw. Verified on the identity-matched buildj-sparse checkpoint (registry 2496460ad8c3, 5,515 specs): exactly those five cells at 0 nonzero records; all other states 1-14 (national 156); AL = the pre-existing Build-I exclusion. New 24-cell exclusion list (19 Build-I verbatim + 5 TANF, measured justifications, sha 0be0c200); sparse now compiles 5,533-24+1 = 5,510 specs (Build I: 5,514). Selection-side remedy tracked as #346/#355-class work. Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
…nifest (#368) Fourth stale-register catch, same root cause as the previous three (coverage growth digesting): the #369 input-coverage gate flagged its reviewed exclusions for the identical five columns from the parity catch. Regenerated via tools/build_us_release_input_coverage_manifest.py (derives from the fixed parity register): exactly five reviewed_exclusion -> required promotions (65->70 required / 93->88 exclusions, total 158, SSI probe intact), nothing else. ONE-PASS REGISTER SWEEP (to end the serial discovery): grepped every register for the five columns + takes_up_tanf-era assumptions — parity known-gaps (fixed), coverage manifest (fixed here), US_DEGENERATE_INPUT_REVIEWED_EXCLUSIONS (clean), US_DOCUMENTED_ABSENT_INPUTS (clean), take-up contract (#384-aligned, declares TANF treatment), zero-support (Build-J 24-cell, passed in-run), medicaid substitutions (RI applied), pinned parity reference + source_stages (correct non-register mentions). takes_up_tanf_if_eligible already 'required'. test_release_input_coverage 14 passed (incl. manifest==regeneration); the release's exact #384 register-consistency preflight passes with the promotions (no signal-side/excused-side collision). Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
… logged (#368) Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
SSI probe +$5,153,370,118 @2024 GREEN (below the +$9.66B overlay, above the ~$1.60B dense-native class; SIPP blend #374 open). final_loss 0.030843 / within-10% 0.8900 (beats Build I) / export-mass 0/35 / zero-support 0 / release_gates True. Registry 091ace02f962 (5,510 = 5,533-24+1). H5 sha 9d1e460ddbc4…; manifest 3d292c2231d9…. Verdict: #368 (comment) Dense diagnostic arm materializing (D2 direct-solve script updated for the 5,534-spec dense registry). STAGING/LOCAL ONLY — publication is Max's call. Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
…ment) CI runs `ruff check .`; the staged run scaffolding tripped F401 (unused `os` in detach.py) and F841 (unused `pg` in extract_gates_buildj.py). Remove both — no behavior change. (#368) Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
test_no_incumbent_data_package_references_in_live_tree flagged the Build J base-rebuild summary (experiments/build_j_recert/base_j.summary.json), which records the incumbent us-data checkout in local-path provenance. experiments/ is run scaffolding / staged run outputs, not shipped source (nothing there is packaged under packages/), so it belongs in the same non-shipped class as the already-skipped `out` tree — the shipped tree under packages/ is still swept. Extends the populace#363 precedent (.claude worktrees skipped). No gate on shipped-source purity is relaxed. (#368) Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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…rrent (#392) * Decouple the live latest-pointer loader test from which release is current Main has been red since #389: the Build J re-certification moved the Hub's latest.json from Build I to Build J, and test_existing_certified_release_metadata_resolves_through_latest_pointer pinned the Build I release id and artifact digest. The loader is follow-the-pointer by design (there is no API to request a specific release id), so this was a stale pin of live remote state, not a resolution bug — and any pin here reds main again on the next re-cert. - Rewrite the live test as release-agnostic structural checks: the currently published chain must resolve coherently (id prefix, repo, filename, revision pinned to the release id, sha shape, engine certification) without asserting which release is current. - Pin exact release-metadata equalities against the FakeHubDownload fixture instead, where the suite controls the pointer. - Add a fixture test for the re-certification semantics themselves: publishing a successor moves the pointer and resolution follows. Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com> * Tighten the live release-id shape check to the registry year Assert populace-{country}-{spec.year}-* rather than just the country prefix, and note in the docstring that release-identity pinning belongs to policyengine.py's certification fixtures (updated atomically with each certification PR), not to this repo's live tests. Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com> --------- Co-authored-by: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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Lands the register edits and run scaffolding produced during the Build J re-certification of the sparse 57k default (populace#368). The certified artifact —
populace-us-2024-buildj-sparse-rmloss100-75d5add-20260710T094201Z— passed every gate with the SSI reform-coverage smoke green at +$5,153,370,118; full verdict and cache-key in populace#368 (verdict comment).This PR is the register/scaffolding side of that run. It does not rebuild or publish anything; publication and the default flip are handled separately.
What lands here
ecps_parity_known_gaps.json): remove five stale exemptions —block_geoid,tract_geoid,county_fips,spm_unit_pre_subsidy_childcare_expenses,health_savings_account_ald. The candidate now populates these layers (the Carry the block-anchored US geography ladder as spine columns #277/Carry the geography ladder by default; gate releases on it #289 geography ladder + the restored SPM/HSA surface), so the exemptions rotted; Fail the eCPS parity gate on stale exemptions; remove six rotted entries #337's parity gate fails closed on stale entries, which is how they were caught.release_input_coverage_manifest.json): regenerated withtools/build_us_release_input_coverage_manifest.py; the diff is exactly the same fivereviewed_exclusion→requiredpromotions (counts 65 → 70 required / 93 → 88 reviewed_exclusion, total 158 unchanged). The three SSI countable-resource assets stayrequiredwith no exclusion, per Build J: full eCPS-exported-column coverage as a HARD release gate + asset-column restoration (SSI reforms score $0) #368's red-by-design guarantee.experiments/build_j_recert/sparse_zero_support_exclusions_buildj.json): Build I's 19 (1 AL TANF + 18 under-$1 state-AGI taxable-interest tail cells) plus 5 new Build J TANF cells (fl/ia/mo/ne/njbasic assistance). The five are new because Remove the stale TANF degenerate-exclusion (P0) + cross-register and take-up preflights #384 made TANF take-up seeding live (13,205/59,900 spm_units True vs the old constant-True); each is verified at 0 nonzero records on the identity-matched staged frame while every other state carries 1–14. Per-artifact support-expressibility exclusions; the dense 337,704 parent expresses these cells. Selection-side remedy is Informed-init L0 selection: warm-start reselection for pool changes (ACS/ASEC ingest forcing function) #346/UK small national default: L0-selected ~50k-household file from the 535k pool #355-class work.experiments/build_j_recert/,PROGRESS_BUILDJ.md): staged launchers, the selection carry-over verifier, the gate/verdict extractors, and the working log.The four-register night
Build J was the first release-scale run of most of this week's merges, and four anti-rot registers failed closed in sequence — one root cause (the week's coverage growth), four catches. Two land in this PR; the other two landed separately:
A one-pass sweep of every remaining register (degenerate, documented-absent, take-up contract, substitutions, probes) found no other entry carrying the five columns or the pre-#384 TANF assumptions.
Verification
test_release_input_coverage.py,test_us_parity_reference.py,test_validation_input_coverage.py,test_gates.py,test_us_source_coverage.py, and the populace-data release/contract suites. The coverage manifest matches a fresh regeneration (assert_release_input_coverage_manifest_current).ruff check .clean.Refs populace#368; the run also touches #337 / #369 / #384 / #386 / #387 as above.
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