diff --git a/tools/build_us_fiscal_refresh_release.py b/tools/build_us_fiscal_refresh_release.py index a4232d8..055ed54 100644 --- a/tools/build_us_fiscal_refresh_release.py +++ b/tools/build_us_fiscal_refresh_release.py @@ -4303,6 +4303,23 @@ def _ecps_parity_gate( # non_sch_d_capital_gains ref $75.747B band [$37.874B, $113.621B] # SOI target ~$10.16B -> far below the lower edge; # cannot pass truthfully -> excluded. +# Build M additions (same doctrine, measured on the Build M frame; the gate +# flagged all three on sparse attempt 10, 5482d38-20260715T114657Z): +# rental_income ref $432.870B band [$216.435B, $649.305B] +# The registry now identifies the concept: SOI ht2 +# rental_royalty_income_amount is an ACTIVE national +# target at $95.95B@2024 (plus 51 state rows) — far +# BELOW the band's lower edge; a correctly calibrated +# column cannot pass -> excluded. +# charitable_non_cash_donations ref $52.840B band [$26.420B, $79.260B] +# SOI Table 2.1 TY2023 noncash contributions = +# $116.417B (CBO-aged ~$126.57B@2024) — ABOVE the +# band's upper edge; cannot pass truthfully -> +# excluded (non_sch_d class: total pinned, split not). +# partnership_self_employment_net_earnings ref $61.740B +# band [$30.870B, $92.610B]; EXPORT-side defect +# (misc/#393 class), remedy tracked in populace#432; +# exclusion lifts with the base rebuild. # Deliberately NOT excluded (parity checks stay live; the run adjudicates): # miscellaneous_income ref $47.401B band [$23.700B, $71.101B]; SOI net # target ~$52.84B is IN-band -> genuine pass expected. @@ -4313,6 +4330,51 @@ def _ecps_parity_gate( # first_home_mortgage_interest follows home_mortgage_interest (second-home # leg un-imputed / 0 per populace#38). US_EXPORT_INPUT_MASS_REVIEWED_EXCLUSIONS: dict[str, str] = { + "rental_income": ( + "Identified by the ACTIVE registry: irs_soi ht2 " + "rental_royalty_income_amount is a compiled national target at " + "$95.95B@2024 (with 51 state rows), so the solve pins the rental " + "concept to SOI while the live-default reference carries $432.87B " + "on this column — ~4.5x the SOI level, an incidental artifact of " + "the incumbent solve (nothing pinned rental before the Build H SOI " + "identification). The +/-50% band's lower edge ($216.44B) sits far " + "ABOVE the SOI-true level, so a correctly calibrated column cannot " + "pass this parity check. Corroboration: partnerships' net rental " + "real estate income is NEGATIVE (-$66.9B TY2022, SOI Partnership " + "Returns bulletin Fig. K) — net rental concepts run an order of " + "magnitude below the reference's gross-like mass. Build M sparse " + "exports $90.70B, at the pinned level (attempt 10, 5482d38)." + ), + "charitable_non_cash_donations": ( + "Identified by SOI Table 2.1 TY2023 (the same vendored ledger bytes " + "the active $230.46B@2024 total-charitable target compiles from, " + "23in21id.xls): noncash ('other than cash') contributions = " + "$116.417B TY2023, CBO-aged ~$126.57B@2024 — ABOVE the reference " + "band's upper edge ($79.26B; ref $52.84B on this column). The " + "registry constrains the charitable TOTAL; the cash/noncash split " + "was never pinned, so the reference's split is an incidental " + "artifact of the incumbent solve (the non_sch_d_capital_gains " + "class: aggregate constrained, component split not). A correctly " + "calibrated column cannot pass. Build M sparse exports $92.67B, " + "between the reference and the SOI level (attempt 10, 5482d38)." + ), + "partnership_self_employment_net_earnings": ( + "EXPORT-side defect, excluded with the remedy tracked (the " + "miscellaneous_income/#393 pattern, NOT a reference error): the " + "base-m pool collapses this signed, sparse column (4,467 nonzero " + "of 865k persons) to near-cancellation — positive leg +$47.71B " + "vs negative leg -$48.06B, net -$0.35B at base weights, against " + "base-j's +$12.21B and the PUF-direct-era reference's +$61.74B. " + "The unpinned solve then amplifies unpredictably (Build J landed " + "-37.6% in-band; Build M lands -$22.72B, -136.8%). Reachability " + "is not the barrier (ratio-5 on the positive leg alone reaches " + "$238B); the pool's leg cancellation is. Remedy = diagnose and " + "fix the QRF chain for this column in the staged base builder and " + "rebuild (single-chain, checkpointed), then identify the concept " + "with an SOI Schedule SE target so the solve stops treating it as " + "a free dimension (populace#432). This exclusion lifts with that " + "rebuild." + ), "miscellaneous_income": ( "Source concept mismatch, established by populace#393's remedy " "experiments: the PUF pipeline maps miscellaneous_income = E01200, "